The Asian Football Confederation (AFC) has announced a new format for 2026 World Cup qualification. The global showpiece is scheduled to expand for the first time since 1998 and will feature 48 teams as opposed to the usual 32. This format will give four additional places to the Asian teams taking up total allocation from four to eight teams. The AFC will also retain an intercontinental playoff spot, meaning there could be as many as nine Asian teams in USA, Mexico, and Canada in four years’ time.
Since the 2018 tournament, the AFC has elected to merge qualifying for the Asian and World Cup into the same tournament. This format will continue for the 2026 World Cup and the 2027 Asian Cup.
Controversially, the AFC has elected to keep its preliminary phase meaning that one fifth of the nations that make up the confederation will have a World Cup qualifying campaign that lasts a total of two games.
Teams ranked between 26th and 47th will play in Preliminary Round 1. The home and away matches are scheduled to be played on October 12th and 17th, 2023. The 11 winners will join the Top 25 sides in Preliminary Round 2.
Preliminary Round 2 will see the 36 remaining teams divided into nine groups of four. The teams will play each other in a home-and-away round Robin of the following match days:
- MD 1: November 16, 2023
- MD 2: November 21, 2023
- MD 3: March 21, 2024
- MD 4: March 26, 2024
- MD 5: June 6, 2024
- MD 6: June 11, 2024
The top two teams from each group (18 in total) will qualify for the 2027 Asian Cup and proceed to Round 3 of World Cup qualification. The 18 teams with be divided into three groups of six. The 10 matches will be played between the September 2024 and March 2025.
The top two teams in each of the three groups will qualify directly for the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Teams in positions three and four will proceed to Round 4.
Round 4 will divide the six teams into two groups of three. The teams will only play each other once in this round- presumably on neutral territory- with the Group winners qualifying directly for the 2026 World Cup. The second place teams will face off for the right to represent Asia in the Intercontinental playoff. This phase will be played over four match days between September and November 2025.
What it Means for Palestine
The FIFA Ranking has been Palestine’s enemy during the past two qualification campaigns. For large stretches between June 2014 and June 2019 Palestine was ranked as one of Asia’s Top 16 teams.
In January 2015, Palestine was ranked 14th in Asia but their ranking fell to 19th following three losses at the Asian Cup. The quirk in the ranking at the time meant Palestine were punished for playing at the continental showpiece. As a result, Syria and Vietnam were placed in Pot 2 in spite of not participating at the continental showpiece. Palestine ended up being grouped with eventual World Cup finalists Saudi Arabia (the Pot 2 team) and the 2015 Asian Cup third place finisher (UAE).
Four years later Palestine missed out on Pot 2 by even narrower margins. Once again, their ranking fell following the Asian Cup and as the 17th best team Al-Fida’i were grouped with Saudi Arabia and Uzbekistan and fellow 2019 Asian Cup finalist Yemen in addition to the best ranked Pot 5 team Singapore.
Now the calculus has changed. There is no chance (given FIFA’s move to introduce an ELO inspired ranking in 2918) that Palestine’s ranking falls to below 25th in Asia- so they will once again avoid Preliminary Stage 1.
At the time of writing, Palestine is the 15th best team in Asia but the likes of Kyrgyzstan, Lebanon, and Vietnam are not far behind. Al-Fida’i are helped by the expanded format as even a slight drop will still keep them in Pot 2 of any perspective draw.
A good performance at next year’s 2023 AFC Asian Cup could even propel Palestine into Pot 1 in the rankings. Look no further than Jordan and Qatar whose surprise performances catapulted them from 21st and 16th in Asia to 15th and 5th, respectively in the aftermath.
