Assessing Palestine’s World Cup Qualification Hopes

Too little, too late? Peaking at the right time? Football Palestine assess if Palestine can realistically qualify for Round 4 and keep their World Cup dreams alive.

It has been two weeks since Palestine secured a famous 2-1 victory over Iraq in World Cup qualification. That result was Palestine’s first ever win over the Lions of Mesopotamia in 18 official encounters since 1998. Moreover, the vital three points means Palestine still have a path to qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup albeit vis-a-vis the Fourth Round.

Here is how Group B stands with eight out of ten matches in the books:

No team has clinched a World Cup berth and no team has been eliminated

Palestine face Kuwait on June 5th in Kuwait City and host Oman on neutral ground five days later. There are three possible qualifying scenarios for Al-Fida’i:

1. Win vs. Kuwait and Oman AND Oman loss or draw vs. Jordan in Muscat on MD9

2. Win vs. Kuwait and Oman AND Iraq loses against both Korea Republic in Basra and Jordan in Amman. The teams would be even on 12 points but Palestine would need to overhaul Iraq on goal difference (currently -5 to +1)

3. Draw vs. Kuwait, win vs. Oman AND Oman loss vs. Jordan in Muscat on MD9. Palestine could sneak through on superior goal difference or goals scored with both teams finishing on ten points.

Why has Palestine Struggled?

The thinnest of margins decide World Cup qualifiers and Palestine have been competitive in all 14 matches they have contested with the exception of a dead rubber against Australia.

Small factors, such as home field advantage also play a big role. Palestine have never lost a qualifier on home soil and not being able to bank on home support has played a role. Palestine posted a 1-1-1 record on neutral ground in Round 2. With a home match against Oman remaining they are 1-2-1 at “home” in Round 3. If just one of those results had swung over to the win column- Palestine would be in a stronger position right now.

One match in particular stands out- the 2-2 draw against Kuwait- which was marred by horrible refereeing decisions. Add those two points to Palestine’s current tally of six, not only would they have full control of their own destiny en route to Round, there would also be a narrow path to direct qualification.

The other reason for Palestine under performing is that the team has been quietly rebuilt around four veteran players- Captain Musab Al-Battat, Goalkeeper Rami Hamadi, and attackers Tamer Seyam and Oday Dabbagh.

When Palestine secured qualification to the 2023 Asian Cup (played in January 2024) by thumping Philippines 4-0 the lineup was as follows:

Rami Hamadi, Musab Al-Battat (C), Yaser Hamed Mayor, Mohammed Saleh, Samer Jondi; Mohammed Rashid, Mohammed Yamin, Mahmoud Abu Warda; Tamer Seyam, Oday Dabbagh, Saleh Chihadeh

The team would not play another match until a March 2023 friendly against Bahrain. They played four additional friendlies before kicking off competitive play in November against Lebanon. Eleven players have debuted with the team since- many of them now starters or important role players with the team. Here’s how Palestine lined up in their last match against Iraq:

Rami Hamadi, Musab Al-Battat ©, Michel Termanini, Amid Mahajna, Ahmed Taha; Odai Kharoub (Mahmoud Abu Warda 82'), Ataa Jaber, Hamed Hemdan (Zaid Qunbar 69'); Tamer Seyam (Adam Kaied 59'), Oday Dabbagh (Assad Al-Hamlawi 82'), Wessam Abou Ali

Three-fourths of the defence is new. The midfield has been rebuilt around Ataa Jaber with Odai Kharoub has had a late stage renaissance. Adam Kaied looks to be the team’s number ten going forward while Mahmoud Wadi and Saleh Chihadeh have been replaced by Wessam Abou Ali and Assad Al-Hamlawi.

To swap out 7/11 starters in less than three years is not normal turnover in the international game. Comparing lineups from the same dates reveals that Jordan fielded eight of their current starters while Uzbekistan fielded seven on the final day of Asian Cup qualification back in 2022.

With that type of consistency it is not at all surprising that both sides have gone from missing Round Three entirely during Qatar 2022 qualifiers to near qualification for the 2026 World Cup.

The Case Against

Too little, too late. Palestine might have registered a thrilling 2-1 victory over Iraq on MD8 but that papers over the teams failings in the first seven matches. Five encounters against Jordan, Iraq, Oman, and Kuwait generated a meager point.

Moreover the team seemed susceptible to absences in the defence. The first loss against Jordan showed that Palestine had no backup goalkeepers. The second loss showed the risk of playing anyone other than Amid Mahajna alongside Michel Termanini.

To add insult to injury- the man at the heart of the individual errors against Jordan in March has been a gaffe factory for the better part of the year. Mohammed Saleh gave up a ridiculous penalty vs. Qatar at the Asian Cup to allow the hosts to go up 2-1 and see out the game.

He was then run ragged vs. Bangladesh in Kuwait City and needed to be substituted at halftime. Time and again, he kept returning to the starting lineup. An individual error against Oman led to the winner in a game Palestine did not deserve to lose; Makram Daboub benched Saleh against Korea Republic but the damage was already done and the Tunisian was relieved of his duty in spite of a 1-1 draw against the Taeguk Warriors.

Had Palestine generated an extra point or two from the first games then you could make an argument for them to qualify. As it stands, their fate is in the hands of Jordan- who need to take points from Oman to ensure there is something to play for on the final match day.

In spite of the talent, Palestine is not yet a team. Wessam Abou Ali and Oday Dabbagh do not seem to be compatible pieces. The new additions we saw in March- Hamed Hemdan, Ahmed Taha, Assad Al-Hamlawi, and Adam Kaied look fantastic but you cannot ask four players, all under the age of 24, with eight caps between them to rescue your campaign.

The team has been better than the results they recorded in Round Three but football is about results and spurned chances in front of goal count for naught. Even if Palestine advances to Round 4- what will it do other than delay the inevitable? Palestine collected one point from Jordan, Iraq, Kuwait, and Oman in their opening encounters. Are we to believe that this team will collect 4-6 points from a theoretical group hosted in Jeddah in October featuring Saudi Arabia and UAE? That type of analysis is grounded in wishful thinking and not reality.

Al-Fida’i will go down swinging, but make no mistake, they will go down in Round Three.

The Case For

World Cup qualification campaigns are all about momentum and there is one team in this group that has it. Jordan.

Yes, Palestine does not have control of its own destiny and needs Jordan to repay the favour and take points off of Oman in Muscat. Would you bet against Al-Nashama? They have been lights out since the Asian Cup and have lost only twice in World Cup qualifying. Once against Saudi Arabia way back in November 2023 and at home against Korea Republic.

Since then the team has racked up points in every road match they have played in- a stark departure from their form at this stage in 2014 qualification when they collected zero points away from home.

The last time the two teams met- Jordan thrashed Oman 4-0. Jordan are undefeated in their last ten matches against Oman (3-7-0) dating back to 2012. Their most d

Enough about Jordan, though.

In all the number crunching that was done ahead of Round Three the consensus was 12 points would be good enough to nab a playoff spot based on how the groups panned out on the road to Russia and Qatar.

Looking at the schedule, Palestine knew that it had to get to the final international window with a minimum of six points and then defeat their direct rivals- the lowest ranked teams in the group- to nab a spot in Round 4.

If Al-Fida’i only registered a point in March then we would be dealing with a scenario in which only one narrow qualifying path existed. Instead, the win against Iraq means there are three qualifying scenarios.

Cynics might argue that advancing will just delay the inevitable but that fails to factor in the room for improvement from a newly put together team. 16/40 players (40%) who have represented Palestine since the World Cup qualification campaign started debuted in 2023.

Palestine needs help but if they win their remaining two games there is a high probability they advance to Round 4. They would also be better than the current iteration when those matches roll around in October.

It is hard to articulate an argument as to why Palestine will start winning after two years of inconsistent results. For those who were in the stands for the game against Iraq there was a feeling that something clicked into place, just at the right time. Time will tell if that is indeed the case.