Big Changes Coming: AFC to introduce an Asian Nations League
Asia follows in the footsteps of three other confederations by announcing a Nations League but leaves out all details
Sunday’s announcement should come come as no surprise to anyone who has been paying attention to Asian Football Confederation’s (AFC) decisions over the past two decades. A Nations’ League might end up being good for Asian Football and an inevitable development given that potential friendly opponents in Europe, CONCACAF, and Africa have become increasingly occupied with their own competitions.
That said, the AFC has never missed a chance to take a leaf out of UEFA’s playbook even when it might not make the most sense. In 2004, a second tier competition was introduced in Asia- the AFC Cup- instead of an expansion of the fledgling Champions League.
A decade later, when UEFA decided to expand the Euros to 24 teams the AFC followed suit and expanded the Asian Cup to 24 teams.
Two years ago, a third tier competition was reintroduced to the Asian continent to the club game after UEFA created the Conference League. The new Champions League Elite competition did away with the groups in favor of a league format after UEFA introduced it to their club competitions
While it can be argued that some of the changes have been good for Asian Football, implementation has always been haphazard.
Why is an Asian Nations League being announced now?
Well, it might have something to do with CAF’s decision to introduce a Nations League tournament mere hours before.
A Necessary Development?
While fans are quick to dismiss the FIFA Rankings they have only grown in importance as they have been used to seed the Asian Cup and World Cup draws. The issue for Asian teams at the World Cup is that their ranking has been deflated as a result of a lack of competitive fixtures.
With the adoption of a new ranking method in 2018. It is now harder to shoot up the rankings with one good result or by doing what Wales did in 2016- playing no friendlies and reaping the benefits of a 34 spot boost in the ranking.
A new weighting system was introduced which remains in place today. The weighting FIFA uses is as follows:
60 (Highest): FIFA World Cup matches from the Quarter-Finals onwards (Semi-Finals, Final).
50: FIFA World Cup matches (Group Stage, Round of 16).
40: Continental Championship matches (Quarter-Finals onwards).
35: Continental Championship matches (up to Round of 16).
25: Nations League Semi-Finals/Finals, World Cup/Continental Qualifiers.
15: Nations League Group Stage matches.
10: Friendly matches inside the International Match Calendar windows.
5 (Lowest): Friendly matches outside the official International Match Calendar windows
What many had not realized was how valuable a Nations League campaign could be a country’s FIFA ranking. A cursory glance at the standings shows that not only are abject European nations ranked above respectable Asian nations but so are many of Concacaf’s middling nations.
The breakthrough Palestine recorded over the last two years sees them ranked behind Kosovo, Montenegro, and Guatemala all of whom have never qualified for a major football tournament.
To further illustrate the point take the example of Jordan and Costa Rica who have been on opposite trajectories over the past three years.
Jordan, Asian Cup finalists in February 2024, they played four matches at with a weight of 35 and three with a weight of 40. Their World Cup qualification campaign lasted 16 games, respectively (weight: 25). The sum total of their competitive fixtures was 23.
Their FIFA Arab Campaign (five wins in six games) counts for very little as FIFA sees it as friendlies contested outside the international window (weight: 5)
Costa Rica have had no comparable success- they went out at the quarterfinal stage of both Nations League Campaigns and both Gold Cups but they contested more matches.
10 in the Nations League (weight 15), three Continental Qualifiers (weight: 25), Eight Gold Cup matches (weight: 35-40), and three matches at the 2024 Copa America (weight: 35).
That’s 22 competitive fixtures outside of their 2026 FIFA World Cup qualification campaign for a grand total of 30.
Jordan won 52% of their matches and lost only four competitive matches to Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Korea Republic.
Costa Rica won 43% but enough draws (9) meant that team did not dip below 54th over the past cycle. Jordan peaked at 62.
Asia is hampered by not having a Nations League tournament and only holding the Asian Cup once every four years.
A cursory look at the FIFA Rankings shows what this means. The AFC and Concacaf have the same number of teams in the Top 50. Panama and Canada have used the Nations League to fuel their meteoric rise.
12/41 of the Concacaf Nations are now in the Top 100. Did these nations get better?
No. They simply gamed the system.
Concacaf still provides the majority of nations to the Bottom 10 of FIFA’s rankings. 17/41 nations are in the Bottom 50 (Compared to only 7/47 in Asia).
That said, a Nations League win over Grenada or Aruba is worth 3x as much as a win at the Gulf Cup, Arab Cup, or ASEAN Championship. A glorified friendly between USA and Jamaica? Worth just as much weight as the do-or-die match Palestine contested against Oman in their last World Cup qualifier.
Not everything has to be like Europe
If the stakeholders at the AFC knew what they were doing they would seek to promote the unique elements within Asian Football. The Gulf and ASEAN Championship are viewed as super important for the nations that take part.
The WAFF Championship has fallen by the wayside but Jordan, Lebanon, Palestine, and Syria were always ready to compete. A Shamm Cup could have been developed to complement the Gulf Cup. All these tournaments could and should have been given the same weight as Nations League.
For the smaller nations in Asia, the Challenge Cup could have been brought back with a new format to ensure cash strapped nations play during each international window.
A Nations League could work in Asia but there are challenges that make its implementation far more difficult. Europe is a small continent and as a result it is very rare that a football team and the traveling support have to fly longer than three hours to reach their destination. In Asia, it is very rare that those flights last less than three hours.
Asian football fans will eagerly await the details of the new competition but will also hope it does not come at the expense of their favorite competitions.
For Palestine fans, long shorn of the WAFF Championship this could be a positive development. Moreover, CAF’s decision to make AFCON a quadrennial tournament could elevate the Arab Cup which will now not coincide with any major championship in 2029.